Thursday, November 20, 2008

Too Big to Fail?

This is going to be harder than I thought. Not only can't I type, but I have literally no free time.

We have seen the downturn in the economy effect two primary sectors at this time in the US. The financial industry and the auto industry. To be sure, the financial side I am including several markets as one, since we have issues in credit, and insurance at least. There are also additional market sectors which are tanking, but have not yet been on the radar screen (as far as I can tell) of massive federal intervention. The residential mortgage market, home values, etc., I am including under "financial industry".

My stance, which I hope to defend (or at least describe) is that in the financial industry case, we need to ensure that the market doesn't "freeze" and drive us into a recession. This is America after all. If we have credit, we will keep spending, etc.. Hence, we may need to inject massive amounts of cash to keep the market alive (as long as we can be sure that the recipients actually USE the cash to make credit available). For the auto industry, I am almost ready to "let them fail" but for the huge numbers of people which will then be without income. I fear that the consequences of that could be far greater then keeping the industry afloat.

However, and this is a whacky idea, I know, what if the gov'mint let the industry collapse, and ensured anyone who loses their job (not executives) to receive some sort of ten year pay out of their salary, with a definite end date? I wonder if the cost of keeping these people afloat would be less costly and less risky than trying to save the auto industry from itself.

That is all I have for now, but I hope to expand on each of these points, so stand by whomever may read this. But my goodness, surely you have something better to do.....

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